Forecasting Realized Volatility with Linear and Nonlinear Models

Forecasting Realized Volatility with Linear and Nonlinear Models

Forecasting realized volatility: a review

Modeling financial volatility is an important part of empirical finance. This paper provides a literature review of the most relevant volatility models, with a particular focus on forecasting models. We firstly discuss the empirical foundations of different kinds of volatility. The paper, then, analyses the non-parametric measure of volatility, named realized variance, and its empirical applica...

Modelling and forecasting noisy realized volatility

Several methods have recently been proposed in the ultra high frequency financial literature to remove the effects of microstructure noise and to obtain consistent estimates of the integrated volatility (IV) as a measure of ex-post daily volatility. Even bias-corrected and consistent (modified) realized volatility (RV) estimates of the integrated volatility can contain residual microstructure n...

Har Modeling for Realized Volatility Forecasting

A nonparametric approach to forecasting realized volatility

A well developed literature exists in relation to modeling and forecasting asset return volatility. Much of this relate to the development of time series models of volatility. This paper proposes an alternative method for forecasting volatility that does not involve such a model. Under this approach a forecast is a weighted average of historical volatility. The greatest weight is given to perio...